Slow Evolving Automotive Market may Impact Green Transition
Demand for Oil Slows Down but Not a Crash
By Shubhendra Anand , 03 April, 2025
Global oil demand reports show unbalanced statistics due to different analyses in two consecutive months of 2024. The International Energy Agency (IEA) states that global oil demand will decline by 2030. The report explains that fossil fuel demand may be diminishing. Further, it would not support fuel consumption beyond 2030 in countries like China, the USA, and Africa. Another report by data analytics firm Enverus doubts IEA's predictions regarding the global fossil fuel demand by 2030. In contrast to IEA's report of 2024, Enverus states that global oil demand will level off by 2030, however, at a slow pace compared to the predicted analysis by IEA in 2024.
International energy agency predicted a sharp decline of 15 percent in the global fossil fuel demand. Contradicting the IEA's prediction, Enverus states that global oil demand will not experience a striking decline of 15 percent by 2030. The main reason behind the decrease in the fossil fuel demand is the transition towards clean energy technologies. The shift in energy transformation accelerates renewable energy production. Hence, green energy may take over conventional fuels in the future but gradually. However, the possible chances of clean energy replacing fossil fuels to satisfy global demands by the end of this decade are meager.
Several factors influence the global oil demand nowadays. The growing shift of the automotive sector towards electric vehicles brings significant changes. The consumers' awareness of climate change affects the energy choice globally. Governments worldwide are prioritizing clean energy technologies with several incentives. Further, the leading global companies in various domains are accommodating clean energy demands. According to Enverus, the EV revolution is beginning to experience major roadblocks, as tariffs are becoming a significant factor for China's renewable energy and EV sector. Thus, experts state that outcomes from both the reports of 2024 suggest a "complexity in the global oil landscape." However, despite the shift in energy towards renewable sources, global oil demand will experience a slow demand till the end of this decade.
Enverus’ forecast on global oil demand will not be at its peak by the end of 2030:
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