Cocoa: The Key Factor to Decide the Future of Real & Compound Chocolate Market

Published On: March 2018

Global Real and Compound Chocolate Market– Trends and Forecast till 2023

Chocolate is one of the most common and widely consumed food products in the world. Chocolate is broadly classified by the amount of cocoa it contains. The variety of chocolate products available is apparently without limit, with the confectionery and bakery application of chocolate providing numerous options for chocolate consumers. Premium and dark chocolate are high in demand especially from the developed countries such as the U.S. and the U.K in terms of growth. The growth of the chocolate market over the last decade has been driven by increasing awareness of the health benefits of certain types of chocolate including real & compound. In Asia Pacific region, according to the Indonesian Cocoa Industry Association, domestic chocolate consumption is growing at a significant rate, while increasing demand in China is attracting the key players like Cargill, Barry Callebaut, and Olam International which are also expanding grinding operations in Indonesia and other South Asian countries.

Fate of Real and Compound Chocolate in the Global Market

The global market for real & compound chocolate has been experiencing high demand for the last few years and is projected to reach USD 136.99 billion by 2023. But in developing countries, the market will experience some uncertainty due to the increasing prices of real compound chocolate if there is a shortage, manufacturers will change unit sizes or switch to cheaper alternatives or use more cocoa powder than butter or carob. That will slacken the supply along with real compound chocolate market growth. According to the World Cocoa Foundation, more than 3 million tons of cocoa beans are consumed worldwide annually. Global demand continues to rise mainly due to increasing demand from emerging markets for the chocolate industry. The future of the chocolate industry depends upon the future of cocoa production which is at risk due to climate changes and lack of government support in major cocoa producing countries including Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana.

Market share of Real Chocolate Market Value by Type in 2017

Source: MRFR Analysis

Growing confectionary market is influencing the sales of milk real chocolates in all over the globe. Milk chocolate accounts for more than half of all chocolate consumption but may contain as little as 10 to 15% cocoa, whereas dark chocolate has more than 60% cocoa.  Milk chocolate which contains high cocoa, which is gradually being stocked in many convenience stores. Specialist or artisan chocolatiers largely sell milk chocolate in the past few years. More than two third of North American chocolate eaters prefer milk chocolate over other type of chocolate, but for the seasoning and syrup application of chocolate, manufacturers prefer the compound chocolate due to the low price and easy availability. The gradually better understood health benefits of dark chocolate backing the popularity of dark chocolate as more consumers are looking for healthy foods that can serve multiple functions such as nutrition or convenience.

Significant contribution from European region

Consumers’ inclination towards specialty chocolate is rising in European region which is creating a huge impact on demand for real & compound chocolate market growth from last few years. The rise of chocolate industry in developed countries has also triggered the demand for high-quality fine flavor cocoa. However, Ivory Coast and Ghana remain the largest bulk cocoa suppliers to Europe and North America. But in last few years, there is an instability in the cocoa industry in Ghana which is mainly caused due to heavy rainfall and poor government policies. The declining supply of cocoa from African countries has opened the doors of opportunity for Latin American suppliers which mainly includes Brazil, Ecuador, and Mexico. Sustainability is progressively important on the European chocolate market. Consumers are becoming more aware of the context of cocoa & chocolate production which is playing a key role in purchasing decision.  

Real and Compound Chocolate Market Analyst View

Many researchers are predicting that the future of the chocolate industry may be at risk. The industry as the supply of cocoa will be struggling to meet the growing demand. According to market research future, the chocolate industry will find its way to survive, but few key players will dominate the whole market. Scientists are working with the high-tech gene-editing system Crispr-Cas9 to engineer cacao trees to be resistant to some of the presently fatal plant diseases a changing climate could aggravate. Though CRISPR hasn’t been used on cacao before, other labs have successfully used this technique to modify other plants in recent years. Mars Inc. along with scientists at the Innovative Genomics Institute (IGI) are working to develop effective crop protection techniques.